Methodology
Release evaluation · 7 Oct 2026 · does not rewind · data as of 8 Oct 2026 · release r10
What this is
Every Swiss AG that raises its share capital must publish the change in the Swiss Official Gazette of Commerce (SHAB). Kapitalradar reads those entries from 1 Aug 2025 to 8 Oct 2026, rebuilds each company’s capital history, and asks which increases look like a startup financing round. Every entry links to its SHAB publication.
How a capital increase is classified
A pre-filter keeps capital increases of AGs and drops restructurings and reductions. Rules score what the gazette states: the amount, the share nominal, the company’s age and purpose, new preferred classes, how the increase was paid. Then claude-opus-5-5 (prompt version 1) reads the same facts, with person names removed, and returns a score. An increase is shown as a likely financing at a score of 0.60 or more; between 0.35 and 0.60 it is undecided. The score is not a calibrated probability. Thresholds were frozen on development data before the evaluation sets were opened.
Rules
| Rule | Kind | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| The increase is an odd amount in small-nominal shares, as priced rounds usually are. | positive | 1.0 |
| The company was founded less than six years before this capital increase. | positive | 0.5 |
| The company's purpose describes technology or life-sciences development. | positive | 0.5 |
| A new class of preferred shares was created. | positive | 1.5 |
| A round increase in a holding company. | negative | -1.0 |
| A small increment typical of employee share options. | negative | -1.0 |
| Paid entirely by converting existing claims, with no new money. | negative | -1.5 |
| Paid with assets or shares contributed in kind, with no new money. | negative | -1.5 |
| Shares issued out of conditional capital, as when options are exercised. | negative | -1.0 |
| Paid out of the company's own reserves, with no new money. | negative | -1.5 |
| Part of converting the company from a GmbH into an AG. | negative | -1.0 |
| Capital was reduced and re-increased in the same entry, a restructuring. | hard negative | excludes |
| Nominal capital decreased. | hard negative | excludes |
Rules-only counts an increase as a financing at a rules score of 1.0 or more.
Evaluation
| System | Precision | Recall |
|---|---|---|
| Rules + Claude | 10%–100% (unverifiable counted as false / true); 95% interval 2%–100%, n=17 | 16 of 30 announced rounds |
| Rules only | 7%–97% (unverifiable counted as false / true); 95% interval 1%–99%, n=29 | 18 of 30 announced rounds |
Counting undecided increases as hits, rules + Claude finds 17 of 30.
Recall is measured on 30 financing rounds announced in the press and sealed before any threshold was set. Precision is measured on a stratified sample of the system’s positives, each checked by hand against outside evidence. Confirmed rounds come from hand-checked announcements.
Limits
The SHAB states capital, shares and how they were paid. It does not state the amount raised, the price per share or the investors: those fields read “not in the SHAB”. GmbH capital changes are not covered. Company history before 1 Aug 2025 comes from each company’s own publications and is labeled when partial. Parser version 4.